The rise in prediction markets raises critical questions for the future of democracy. In order to ensure that trust and ...

In the world around us, many things exist in the context of time: a bird’s path through the sky is understood as different positions over a period of time, and conversations as a series of words ...

Hedge funds, prop trading firms like Jane Street and Two Sigma, and asset managers are now putting billions into prediction ...

Polymarket’s decentralized forecasting has caught Wall Street’s eye. The New York Stock Exchange’s parent, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), made a headline-grabbing US$2 billion investment last ...

Prediction markets have moved from a niche academic concept into one of the fastest-growing areas of modern market infrastructure. Once confined to election forecasting and small experimental ...

Three books unpack our infatuation with prediction, and what we lose when we outsource this task to machines. To be human is, fundamentally, to be a forecaster. Occasionally a pretty good one. Trying ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. author of Chained to the Desk in a Hybrid World: A Guide to Balance. Sometimes our negativity bias turns our future predictions ...

Six individual traders have made more than $1.3 million after betting on the initial US strike on Iran that killed Ali Hosseini Khamenei – Iran’s brutal ...

Prediction market platform Kalshi is surging so much in Trump's second term, that it's prompted something of an arms race: Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel and DraftKings have all announced rival services ...