There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Elizabeth Guevara is a personal finance reporter who explains the world of business and economics and how it impacts your finances. She joined Investopedia in 2024. J. David Anke / Getty Images The ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

The longest inverted yield curve on record may finally be in the rearview mirror. The yield on the 2-year note closed at 3.651%, according to Tradeweb, lower than the 10-year yield, which settled at 3 ...

Labor-market worries are driving the yield on the two-year Treasury note slightly below the 10-year yield, threatening a run that stretches back to mid-2022. An inverted yield curve, in which ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...